A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
