Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Significant resources is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a capability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
